We break down three of today's games in ESL Pro League, including NiP's clash with Complexity.
fnatic Map 2 (1.64)
After a stretch for poor performances, mousesports chose to make a roster change, removing woxic in favour of the former FaZe player, Bymas. Their debut with the new roster went really well, as they swept FaZe 2–0 in the opening match of ESL Pro League. fnatic looked shoddy at times against Spirit in their opening match, but thanks to a brilliant individual performance by Golden and some clutch heroics by KRIMZ, they managed to make it through to with the W. Inferno and Nuke have been the most common maps between these two teams, and it would not be surprising to see the same maps once more. Nuke is a clear weak point for fnatic, and they are continuously exploited on this map, as seen in their loss to Spirit earlier in the week. However, they have enough of an edge on their map choice to back them at the current odds on offer.
coL Map 2 (1.67)
The last time these two sides met was in ESL One: Road to Rio, where NiP came out victorious after three maps. Mirage, Vertigo and Train were the maps in that series, but I expect that we will see a different outcome in the map veto this time around. Complexity really messed up in that veto by picking Mirage instead of Nuke. Now when they have enough data on NiP, I see no reason why they wouldn’t pick it against them in this spot. Especially when you consider that they were willing to do so against Heroic, which is a far better Nuke team compared to NiP. The Swedes will likely also approach the veto in a different fashion since Vertigo has quickly fallen out of favour for them since hampus joined the roster. With that in mind, I would expect them to pick either Inferno or Train here, where they would have a more significant advantage. It is rarely a bad idea to bet against NiP when they are facing good Nuke and Dust2 teams, which is exactly what Complexity is, so betting on Complexity to win Map 2 is a solid choice. With that said, NiP are looking solid on Inferno and Train at the moment, so taking NiP to win Map 1 isn’t a bad shout either, especially if we would see the odds drift further closer to kickoff.
Astralis just brought back gla1ve, and were swept in their opening match against Complexity. FaZe didn’t have a great time either, as they were swept by mousesports, a team that just picked up Bymas who FaZe essentially booted off the team in favour of Kjaerbye. FaZe appear to be giving Kjaerbye the same type of treatment as they did with Bymas, slotting him straight into olofmeister’s role and positions. As alluded to in some of my previous articles on the topic, this is far for ideal for Kjaerbye, who had way more room to shine on North. With that in mind, it is incredibly difficult to back FaZe at this point. Astralis have had the edge in this matchup historically, and it has mostly come down to their superior map pool. I would expect FaZe to pick Dust2 here where they can rely a lot more on individual skill, but I do favor Astralis to take the series even if it would take three maps to do so. Regardless of how you slice it, they will likely get a combination of Nuke, Inferno and Overpass, which gives them a significant edge in this series.
Prop Bet: Magisk vs. dupreeh (Most Kills)
Since Bubzkji joined Astralis, Magisk has been on fire, posting the highest average kills/round on the team with 0.77. Compare this to both device and dupreeh, who averages 0.67 kills/round during this time period. With gla1ve back on the team, Magisk will be freed from his IGL duties and this should help his individual game as well. There is a good chance that FaZe picks Dust2 in this series, which is a solid map for dupreeh overall, but it is really hard to take him over Magisk at even odds when you consider Magisk’s current form.