We break down four of today's matches in ESL Pro League, including a classic matchup between fnatic and FaZe.
GODSENT +1.5 (1.48)
GODSENT have the superior H2H record between these two teams, winning two BO3s and losing one BO1 at the start of the year. Train and Nuke were the maps in their most recent BO3, and it would not be surprising to see the same outcome this time around. Train has always been allu’s playground and a comfort pick for ENCE overall, and I would expect them to pick it here, while GODSENT will have the option to pick either Nuke or Overpass. ENCE have had a good start to the season, beating the likes of Astralis and Heroic on Nuke, so GODSENT may be tempted to go for Overpass. Dust2 seems like the most probable decider, and while this isn’t a great map for either of the two teams, ENCE have been good enough on it to justify being the favourite in this matchup. With that said, GODSENT are definitely an appealing underdog play. We have seen the odds drift further and we are now getting longer odds on GODSENT against ENCE than we did against NaVi to start the season. This is mostly with current form in mind, but it seems like a slight overreaction. I would not blame anyone for riding the hot hand, which happens to be ENCE in this spot, but I don’t mind taking a stab on GODSENT at the longer odds.
Over 2.5 Maps (1.91)
This has been a super close series overall. All three of their past games have gone to a decider, with G2 winning two, and both of those wins were in overtime on the final map. The map veto has played out in the exact same fashion in all three of these games, with Nuke, Vertigo and Mirage being the picks. I have been smashing the over on this matchup with success, and considering how this series has played out so far, it is hard to not to go there again. The round handicap markets are also quite interesting, as we have seen over 26.5 rounds in four of six matches played on Nuke and Vertigo between Heroic and G2. But keep in mind that you’re paying higher margins on these markets which makes it a less profitable play in the long run.
Both fnatic and FaZe have struggled a lot with the online matches. FaZe have had a really rough start with Kjaerbye, losing 9 out of 11 maps. FaZe are sitting on a 0% win rate on Nuke across four maps with Kjaerbye, but luckily fnatic tend to ban it outright in this matchup. This will give FaZe the option of either Mirage or Dust2, which honestly suits them a bit better with the current roster. fnatic will likely opt for Overpass, which has been their map choice in the last two meetings with FaZe, leaving Train and Inferno as potential decider maps. fnatic definitely have the upper hand in the map veto, and considering how poor FaZe have been with Kjaerbye, it is hard to warrant a bet on them at this point.