We take a look at today's prop bets in the IEM Katowice play-in stage
Today we are getting the same line on blameF to get 25 kills, this time against a much worse opponent in the form of Wisla Krakow. I recommended against betting on blameF against NiP (which proved to be the right move) but let’s have a look at how he stacks up against Wisla Krakow.
Wisla Krakow are one of the worst teams in the tournament, so it is clear that Complexity are a significant favourite. We are back to BO3s for this match, which means that the 1st map is likely going to be Wisla Krakow’s map choice. Wisla Krakow does not have a perma-ban and they tend to ban either Vertigo, Overpass, Dust2 or Inferno. They tend to pick either Mirage, Train or Nuke, which is actually great for blameF since these are great maps for him. The question is if they have the confidence to pick Mirage or Nuke against Complexity if Train gets banned. Considering that Complexity are on a 5-map losing streak on Nuke, I think that this is their most probable map choice.
Nuke is a great map for blameF, who tends to put up big fragging totals on the outside part of the map by lurking or picking people off from range with the AUG. His recent form on the map is excellent, having averaged 0.88 kills/round on Nuke over the past three months. He has posted 25+ frags in three out of these eight matches, which is a 37.5% success rate. His short term totals are good enough for us to consider this prop bet at 3.00, which implies a probability of 33.3%. With that said, his long term totals are not as good. Going back 12 months, he has posted 25 kills or more in 30.18% of matches.
If you put a lot into form, then this is a viable bet and definitely a lot better than the one offered to us yesterday against NiP. He actually played very well against NiP, posting 19 frags in a 16-7 loss on Nuke, so his form is pretty good heading into this series.
My worry is that he will be overshadowed by more aggressive players like k0nfig and poizon if this is a stomp. However, I think that is more likely to occur on a map like Mirage than on Nuke.
All in all, this is a much better prop bet than the one offered yesterday. It isn’t a clear bet however, and you have to put some thought into how much you value form.
Brollan And KRIMZ To Combine 45+ Kills (3.00)
Both these teams are coming off a loss. MIBR are on a four game losing streak heading into this match. fnatic looked looked poor against OG, and they just crumbled time and time again on the B site of Overpass. Brollan had a surprisingly poor game despite this being a good map for him. He was playing in tandem with Jackinho on B and they just got overwhelmed constantly. He used to play on the A site alongside Golden, where he was a lot more impactful. Thankfully, I don’t think we will see Overpass in this series.
The problem with this prop bet is that Brollan and KRIMZ aren’t really a dominant duo in the same vain of say a s1mple and electronic on NaVi or even ZywOo and shox on Vitality. It is kind of rare for them both to pop off at the same time, making this a questionable bet. Brollan has a good chance of popping off on Vertigo and Mirage is a great map for KRIMZ, but this needs to be a long game for the other part of the duo to get his share of frags. I would rather take the blameF bet than this one, personally.