We break down two of the late matches tonight in DreamHack Masters Winter and Flashpoint Season 2.
fnatic Map 1 (1.69) or MIBR Map 2 (1.98) See Notes.
MIBR managed to pull off yet another upset, taking down OG to make it to the upper-bracket finals where they will take on the Swedes from fnatic. In the past, MIBR would be a pretty good opponent for fnatic due to their map pool, but this new roster has taken a completely different approach to the veto. Nuke and Dust2 have both been the two stand-out maps for MIBR, and these are maps where fnatic struggle. With that said, I think fnatic should still be the favourite in this one since they have the best chance of taking the series over the course of three maps. fnatic are too strong on maps like Overpass, Inferno and Train not to be the favourite in that scenario. However, there are multiple different ways that this veto could play out that makes picking an outright winner on the ML in this one difficult. I like fnatic to win their map choice pretty much no matter what, but MIBR will have a serious chance at the upset if they pick Dust2 or Nuke, whichever one fnatic doesn’t ban. Picking Vertigo would be a mistake in my opinion, as fnatic have proven to be more than capable on this map since they started floating it in the veto.
Triumph (1.41) or Rugratz +1.5 (1.57) See Notes.
Triumph were upset in their opening match versus Rebirth and now have to fight for their lives in the loser-bracket. I would expect this to be a scrappy match between two teams who favour a scrimmy style of play. The veto will be weird in this one, since both of the teams have a very similar map pool. I think Rugratz will have far greater chance at the upset if they choose to ban Inferno and take a gamble that Triumph doesn’t pick either Dust2 or Vertigo. Considering that Triumph have lost four straight on Dust2 and have zero games on record on Vertigo makes this a viable option for them. If they do so, I think you can make a strong case for Rugratz on the handicap. If they go for their usual perma-bans I favour Triumph here by quite some margin.
*Note: Edited map order.