We check out some of today's prop bets from ESL Pro League
Recommended Bet: valde (2.00)
OG’s valde takes on Maden from FPX in this H2H matchup. Let’s take a look at how they stack up.
First, I think it is worth thinking about what type of maps we could possibly see in this series. It has been a while since we saw these two teams face off against each other, but we do have some data to look at. Inferno has been OG’s map choice in the last two series against FPX. The GODSENT side has mixed it up a bit more, opting for either Nuke or Overpass.
Interestingly, Maden has been the superior fragger over the past 12 months against Top 20 opposition with the exception of Overpass and Dust2. Here is how they stack up in terms of average kills/round:
Even if you narrow it down to a more recent sample size, Maden still comes out ahead. I also think that it is more likely that we see some combination of Inferno and Nuke, which gives Maden the edge.
However, valde has been the better player overall in past matchups with FPX. In fact, he has outperformed Maden in all three of their prior meetings. The fact that OG are the favourites also speaks in his favour. I would also argue that valde is more of a focal point for OG’s offense than Maden is. The duo of valde and mantuu are usually the ones to put up numbers on OG, while the talent on FPX is a bit more diverse.
In terms of recent form, Maden stands out due to his 34 frag performance in their last match against BIG. However, this has inflated his numbers a bit. Up until that point, valde was the better fragger in the league with 0.76 kills/round vs. Maden’s 0.67 kills/round.
Honestly, this is a pretty close call. Personally, I would slightly edge it in favour of valde. Maden’s aggressive style of play makes him a lot more unpredictable than valde, who is set up to succeed more consistantly than Maden is. If the pricing was a bit different, I would seriously consider Maden, but I think valde is likely the better play - by just a hair.
In this prop bet, we are given the odds of 3.25 for blameF to get more than 24.5 frags in the 1st map against Heroic. I am not quite sure who picks first here, but it should be Complexity who are ranked below Heroic in ESL’s own rankings.
The map pick that makes the most sense is probably Mirage. We have seen Complexity pick Nuke against Heroic in the past, but when you consider that this is Heroic’s best map in terms or winrate and the fact that Complexity have never beaten Heroic on Nuke, I think Mirage is the better play. BIG were also able to beat Heroic on Mirage just a few days ago.
On Mirage, it is actually k0nfig who is the best performer on Complexity. Over the past 12 months against Top 20 competition, k0nfig has averaged 0.79 kills/round on Mirage over blameF’s 0.72 kills/round. If you narrow it down to teams in the Top 10, k0nfig still comes out ahead with 0.80 kills/round vs. 0.71 kills/round for blameF. With these sort of numbers, it is hard to expect blameF to get more than 24.5 frags in this match, as they would likely need a ton of rounds to break this total.
In their last match on Mirage against Heroic, blameF came up just shy of 24.5 kills, posting a total of 23 frags in a 16-7 loss.
Personally, this is a pass for me. It would be a more appealing line if we were given k0nfig in this spot over blameF who tends to put up great K/D totals on Mirage but doesn’t necessarily frag out as hard as k0nfig. I think if Complexity randomly decide to pick a map like Nuke or Overpass instead, blameF’s chances are improved somewhat and then it becomes worth considering.