We take a look at the PickleBet exclusive prop bets for today's matches at BLAST Premier Spring
The first prop bet is whether or not s1mple will be able to get 25+ kills in their match against MIBR and PickleBet are giving us 3.00 odds on this one.
I think it is quite likely that MIBR pick Inferno which should be the first map of the series. This isn’t s1mple’s best map in the pool by any stretch, and this would be a far more appealing bet if a map like Train was on the cards. With that said, he still averages a staggering 0.88 kills/round on this map over the past 12 months. Unlike many other AWPers, s1mple is very effective on the T-side on Inferno, as he tends to put up good numbers with both the AWP and rifles.
Over the past 12 months, s1mple has managed to pull off 25 frags or more in 38.23% of matches on Inferno, indicating that this could be a profitable bet. However, it is worth noting that all but one of those 13 matches went 26 rounds or more. MIBR will likely need to put some rounds on the board for s1mple to get more than 25 frags on this map. I think we need this match to go 27 or more rounds for s1mple to have enough to work with, and the probability of this happening is around 48.3% according to the oddsmakers at the time of writing.
With MIBR being a fairly new roster, we have very little data to look into. They have played Inferno three times so far with this lineup and the results have been very varied. One 16-11 win against Heroic, a 20-22 OT loss to FaZe, and a 16-8 loss to Cloud9. However, this is really too small of a sample for us to really get a good understanding of whether or not they have what it takes to make this competitive. This makes this a pretty high variance bet, but one that I think it is worth making with how the probabilities stack up.
This is an interesting one, as Twistzz is set to make his debut for FaZe in this match against his former team. It is expected that Twistzz will get more room to shine on this roster compared to his time with Liquid. This may be true, but at even odds I personally favour EliGE in this spot. Twistzz baits a ton and puts more emphasis on staying alive than someone like EliGE. If this was a K/D prop bet it would be an entirely different story, but when it comes to pure fragging potential, I favour EliGE due to his aggressive style of play. You can pretty much always count on EliGE to put himself in positions to frag, while someone like Twistzz is a bit more reliant on his teammates to bait for him. We have seen matches in the past where Twistzz puts up very low frag totals due to his passive nature, and this is why I like someone like EliGE a bit more at even odds.