Today is the last day of the OGA Dota Pit group stage. We will find out which 8 teams will advance to the playoffs and which 2 teams (1 from each group) will be eliminated. Let’s analyze final matches of the group stage.
OG -1.5 @ 2.00
OG is on fire lately. They have crushed Alliance, Vikin.gg and HellRaisers without losing a single map. They are firmly holding 1st place in the group and they will stay 1st even if they lose to FTM because of the map win-loss ratio.
FlyToMoon has 2 wins, and 1 loss, and even though they are performing really well I doubt they can take down OG. Depending on OG’s drafts and how seriously they will take this match, FTM can take a map at the best. OG ML should be a safe bet here, but odds are low. I think OG 2-0 is definitely possible, even though it’s a much riskier bet. FTM showed good games vs Vikin.gg and HellRaisers.
Alliance -1.5 @ 1.93
Alliance already secured top 4 placement and are into the playoffs, it’s just a matter of placement now, if they will finish 2nd or 3rd. And the difference is big, since only the top 2 teams will be placed in the winners bracket, while the 3rd / 4th place teams will end up in losers bracket. HellRaisers are 0-3 in the group and 0-6 in the maps, which means they weren’t able to take a map off any team that they’ve faced. Alliance crushed FlyToMoon 2-0, and they are a much stronger team than HellRaisers.
HR is in a big crisis and downfall and I wonder if they will be able to take a map off Alliance here. Nikobaby is just too good at carrying Alliance. Alliance are big favourites here and again Alliance ML bet is a safe way to go, if you find good odds. Alliance 2-0 HellRaisers is very much possible too, odds are amazing. Alliance needs this win to stay top 2 and get that winners bracket for the playoffs, while HellRaisers don’t have anything to play for anymore in this tournament.
Team Secret -1.5 @ 1.49
Both Team Secret and Ninjas In Pyjamas have secured top 2 in group B and they will play in the winners bracket of the tournament. Both teams have 3 wins, but Secret hasn’t lost a map, while Ninjas In Pyjamas lost 2 maps, one vs Team Liquid and another one vs Team Spirit.
Their last 3 clashes went to Team Secret with the same 2-0 scores. I don’t think Puppey will allow any relaxing, and they will try to go for another 2-0. NiP is a good team with good players, but sometimes they choke too hard in the mid / late game. Very risky bet, since teams have nothing to play for. Team Secret is a big favourite, and safe bet would be Secret ML if the odds were decent, but they are not.
Virtus.Pro -1.5 @ 1.59
Virtus.Pro is still in a position to be eliminated, despite their 1 win and 3 losses. Team Spirit has 3 losses and a 1-6 map win-loss ratio, but if they win against Virtus.Pro today, they still have a chance to advance. The last 3 clashes between these 2 teams went in Virtus.Pro’s favour.
VP is 3-0 against Team Spirit, even though their last match went to 3 maps. This is do or die for both teams, and on paper Virtus.Pro are a much stronger team. They’ve won against Team Liquid on Tuesday in an impressive performance and I do believe they will do everything to beat Team Spirit 2-0 as they need that win. Another thing that goes in VP’s favour is that Team Spirit is on a 7 match lose streak.