Day 3 of OGA Dota Pit ended up without any major upsets. Now, we are looking for the end play for both groups. In the last 2 days we will find out which teams will go to playoffs, and which will be eliminated after the group stage of this tournament.
Vikin.gg @ 2.00
HellRaisers should be slight favourites here, but Vikin.gg has a chance too. Both teams are pinned at the bottom of group A. HellRaisers with 2 losses out of 2 matches, and Vikin.gg with 3 losses. HellRaisers still haven’t managed to take a map in this tournament, while Vikin.gg took a map off Alliance and FTM. Good enough to beat HellRaisers? I don’t think so. But when we check HellRaisers match history, we see that they are on a big downfall, with four straight 0-2 losses. Their last win was vs Team Spirit, and that was a very close 2-1 victory.
Vikin.gg has 2 wins out of their last 5 matches. Let’s just say those wins were vs much weaker teams than HellRaisers, but the plus is that those teams were from CIS region - Empire Hope and Nemiga. That’s a big plus for them coming into this match vs another CIS team. Both teams need a win to stay in the competition and to have a chance to advance on.
This will be a hard match as neither team is performing flawlessly currently, but according to their last showings, I would definitely pick Vikin.gg here. Good value in this bet, odds are amazing. Don’t get me wrong, HellRaisers are still slight favourites here, but Vikin.gg can definitely win this. Those teams are kind of equal right now.
OG @ 1.61
This will be a fight between two top teams from group A. OG are holding 1st place with 2 wins and 4-0 in maps, while Alliance have the same amount of wins, but they have dropped a map to Vikin.gg. Every time Alliance plays, I’m more and more impressed with Nikobaby playing. His style and skill is amazing, as he is carrying Alliance in the games where they don’t look good as collective. However, this time, it will be hard vs Sumail, one of the best carries in the world. I would dare to say that Nikobaby is currently showing more than Sumail.
However, OG has N0tail, and under his leadership and drafting capabilities, I would definitely mark them as favourites in this match. Topson is still away, and Ceb and Midone are jumping into positions 2 and 3. But that doesn’t matter, OG in their first 2 matches looked amazing, and they can definitely beat Alliance. I don’t think that Alliance’s fng can show enough quality in this match, as in the previous matches he has been their weakest link.
Virtus.Pro @ 2.04
For me, this will be the most interesting match of the day in OGA Dota Pit. Virtus.Pro, a CIS powerhours is placed as the last team in the group with 2 losses, and they desperately need a win in this match to have a chance for the playoffs. Team Liquid is not looking any better, with 1 win and 2 losses they are in danger if VP takes them down.
An interesting fact is that in their last 2 matches in the last 10 days, Virtus.Pro hasnt’t managed to take a map off Team Liquid. Liquid has beat them 2 times in the last 10 days with clean 2-0 results. However, things in Dota 2 change very fast on a daily basis. Sometimes you are on the top, another day you are on the bottom. That exact situation Virtus.Pro had a few days ago vs VP.Prodigy. Their academy team beat them with a clean 3-0 in the grand finals of Epic League. That wouldn’t be a surprise if Virtus.Pro didn’t beat them in their last 3 clashes easily.
I would say both teams are struggling right now, Liquid is looking bad too with losses vs Secret, Alliance, NiP and VP.Prodigy, and they are looking for a win to start the win streak. However, I do think this match will be much closer than the odds are suggesting. I really do think VP can take down Liquid, but Liquid can take down VP too. There is some nice value in Virtus.Pro ML bet here, even though Team Liquid is favoured here because of their match history vs Virtus.Pro.
Team Secret -1.5 @ 1.28
Team Secret is hardly losing any maps lately in any of the tournaments that they are playing. There is just no team in Europe that can match Team Secret’s drafts and gameplay. With 2 wins they are at the top of group B. They won against Liquid and Virtus.Pro with 2-0 scores.
Even if Team Spirit managed to take a map off NiP on Monday, I wouldn’t bet on them today that they can do anything against Secret. They are on a big losing streak, they have some stand-in players as their lineup is still not complete. There is just no question here who will win this match. Anything other than 2-0 for Team Secret would be a real surprise. However, Secret is such a big favourite that even odds on a 2-0 victory are surprisingly low.