We analyse today's head-to-head between ropz' mousesports and device's Astralis
Astralis are coming in as the favourite in this match against mousesports. At odds of 1.26, the Danes have an implied win probability of 79.4%. As the favourite, device definitely has a bit of an advantage. These two teams have played eachother five times, and device has outperformed ropz on all but one occasion.
With that said, mousesports are playing well right now and their star trio of ropz, frozen and acoR have posted some insane numbers so far in this tournament.
Vertigo, Nuke, Dust2 and Inferno are the most probable maps in this series. Let’s have a look at how the two have performed on these maps over the past six months.
We can clearly see that ropz has been the better individual in recent time. Even if we narrow it down to matches against teams in the top 10, ropz still comes out on top on all but one map (Inferno).
This makes this prop bet a lot closer than it would initially seem. The fact that mousesports rarely pick Train against Astralis benefits ropz somewhat as well, since frozen often outshines him on this map.
The question is if it is enough to warrant a bet on ropz at even odds. Probably not, as I think Astralis probably wins this series more often than not. I say this even though I quite like ropz and acoR in fantasy, but in fantasy you will be looking at a better risk/reward ratio when taking these guys in a match against Astralis.
I think the map handicap on mousesports at close to even money is probably the better play and one that I think is worth considering.