We analyse today's promotional bets from the ESL Pro League
Virtus.pro just about squeezed past ENCE in their opening match and they will now take on Complexity who are coming off an upset against Astralis. YEKINDAR had a pretty quiet first two maps of the series but he stepped it up on the decider, posting 28 frags in a 19-17 overtime win.
How YEKINDAR is going to perform could depend a bit on the map choice. These two teams have never played each other before, which makes predicting the veto a bit more difficult. Complexity also have a habit of being unpredictable in vetoes, as they sometimes go for less obvious picks if they feel like they could exploit the opponent on a particular map. With that said, Mirage is the most obvious map pick for Complexity. The most ideal map for YEKINDAR would be Vertigo, and to a lesser extent Dust2 and Overpass, but Mirage isn’t a bad map for him by any means. In fact, it is definitely better than maps like Inferno and Train, two maps where we saw him struggle at times versus ENCE.
YEKINDAR hasn’t played Mirage so far this event, but his recent form on this map is great, having exeeded 26.5 frags in three out of his last four games.
Odds of 3.00 equals an implied probability of 33.3%, which means that YEKINDAR needs to get more than 26.5 frags on Mirage more than that for it to be a profitable bet long term. Looking at YEKINDAR’s all-time stats with Virtus.pro, he has posted more than 26.5 frags on Mirage only 21.4% of the time, which is why I wouldn’t recommend this bet. I actually think that it is a better play to simply bet on Virtus.pro to win map 1 instead at odds of 1.65 (Implied probability: 60.6%) since Virtus.pro have a 66.66% win rate against Top 20 teams on Mirage.